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The Results:
Trying to predict the thought process of your typical network executive
is a complicated process. If you don't believe us, ask the more than 1000
Zap2it users who entered the 2003 Deal Pool. More than 63 percent
of all contestants failed to get the correct answer in a single category.
Another 28 percent only picked one category correctly. Eight entries correctly
guessed four of six categories, including Michael Schwartz, Chris O'Rorke,
Fabio Carone, Andrew Bentivegna, Jeff Raissle, Howard Mass and Jovan Trpovski.
Congratulations to those seven, even though they don't actually win anything.
In the end, the Dead Pool came down to the tiebreaker, which asked for
the date of the first cancellation. FOX pulled the plug on "Luis" on October
27 and with his guess of October 7, Larry Glaeberman came the closest
and was crowned out winner. Special congratulations go out to Larry.
 Our
Thoughts: Last year, CBS was the first network
to pull the plug on a comedy, axing "Bram & Alice." This season, CBS'
only chance to repeat comes with "Two and a Half Men," but with an "Everybody
Love Raymond" lead-in, that may prove challenging. Instead, will "Jump
the Shark" Patron Saint Ted McGinley turn ABC's "Hope & Faith" into cancellation
chum? Or will "Hope & Faith" outlast "It's All Relative," its ABC stablemate?
Will NBC's star-powered "Happy Family" or "Whoopi" be "Emeril" for a new
generation? Will UPN's "The Mullets" be as successful as "The Secret Diary
of Desmond Pfeiffer"? FOX isn't premiering its comedies until late, but
will that prevent "The Ortegas" or "A Minute with Stan Hooper" from taking
the prize? Will the critical adulation for FOX's "Arrested Development"
prove to be its downfall? This could be the most competitive category
in this season's Dead Pool.
The
Experts Say: "Luis," "Happy Family," "A Minute
With Stan Hooper" and "Hope & Faith" were the top vote getters.
We
Quote:
"It's so terrible people may actually watch 'Like Family' on The WB instead,
which is saying something," Tim Goodman of the San Francisco Chronicle
on FOX's "Luis."
The
Reality: The experts got this one correct, as FOX finally put
"Luis" out of its misery after four airings. The official date of cancellation
was Oct. 27. "Luis" was the third most popular choice in this category
among Zap2it readers behind "Whoopi" and "The Mullets."
Our
Thoughts: Last season ABC had "Push, Nevada"
on a short leash. Will the network be similarly impatient when "Threat
Matrix" fails to find an audience on Thursday nights? Will mainstream
viewers be alienated by CBS' "Joan of Arcadia" and its mixture of teen
angst and divinity? Will "Tarzan" have a fate similar to late year's big
WB drama, "Birds of Prey?" Will FOX's "Tru Calling" making Eliza Dushku
wish she'd bit on that "Buffy" spin-off? Will NBC's "The Lyon's Den" send
Rob Lowe scurrying back to the White House?
The Experts Say: Named by half of our
panel, "Threat Matrix" was the top choice, though "One Tree Hill" and
"The Brotherhood of Poland, N.H." also received votes.
We Quote:
"If America wants to watch the touching adventures of fat people it can
watch itself," Cathy Seipps of the UPI syndicate on "Brotherhood."
The
Reality: FOX
picked up an ignominious double win. The network which cancelled the first
comedy, "Luis," also axed the first drama, which "Skin" was flayed from
the network schedule. More than 40 percent of all Dead Pool entries guessed
that "Threat Matrix" would be the first drama cancelled, the leader by
an overwhelming margin.
 Our
Thoughts: You never know whether the first shows
to get pulled will be star-driven vehicles whose high costs aren't justified
by tepid ratings or tiny concept-driven shows that debut and vanish without
making a splash. Will viewers be offended by "Whoopi" because of high
expectations or will they shun "It's All Relative" for failing to live
up to even the most minimal of hopes?
The Experts Say:
The shows mentioned in the previous two categories got votes, as
did wild cards including "Skin" and "Married to the Kellys."
We Quote: "I'm picking 'Married To
The Kellys,' because it's really horrible, it stars Breckin Meyer, and
I really should have picked it for First New Comedy Cancelled, anyway,"
says Rob Salem of the Toronto Star.
The
Reality: Although "Threat Matrix," "Whoopi" and "The Mullets"
were the most picked show in this category, the axe fell first on the
head of veteran character actor Luis Guzman and his underperforming comedy.
"Luis" exits the earth having averaged only 3.6 million viewers per episode.
Our Thoughts:
The WB and UPN will obviously have the lowest rated new shows of the season,
but they may also be patient with new offerings, hoping something may
find an audience. A more established network like NBC might be faster
to cut its losses on a disaster. FOX and NBC both have several new shows
("The Simple Life," "Average Joe," "The Tracy Morgan Show") that don't
have scheduling homes yet, which may make those networks quick on the
trigger. ABC, even without other options, may be just as happy to squash
several of its viral new comedies before they spread the plague through
the line-up, replacing them with, say, "According to Jim" reruns.
 The
Experts Say: The WB was the only network not to get a vote
in this category, though ABC held a slim lead.
We Quote: "You would think I'd say ABC here then, wouldn't
you? But no, I'm on to your little mind games. I'm picking UPN, 'cause
they're really really desperate, and they have three of the worst new
shows of the season, 'Eve,' 'Rock Me Baby' and 'The Mullets,'" says Salem,
bucking convention.
Alternatively: "Definitely ABC. Once its schedule starts falling apart,
the executives will get desperate and start throwing in any bad reality
show they can get their hands on." Charlie McCollum of the San Jose
Mercury News.
The
Reality: This one foiled a good number of Zap2it readers as
more than 65 percent of you guessed that either NBC or ABC would have
the quickest trigger finger. Instead, "FOX" lost this game of chicken.
 Our
Thoughts: Putting a show on hiatus implies that,
unlike cancellation, it might return (not that that helped last year's
winner in this category, ABC's "That Was Then"). Will this category go
to a show from a big-name producer that the network wishes to coddle,
like Jerry Bruckheimer's "Skin" on FOX or David E. Kelley's "The Brotherhood
of Poland, N.H." on CBS? Or will a "Happy Family" or "Tarzan" disappear
for retooling, rather than for cancellation? It's a semantic distinction,
but it makes this category fun.
The Experts Say: "The Brotherhood of
Poland, N.H." is the clear frontrunner, though "The Mullets" and "Happy
Family" also received a strong absence of support.
We Quote: "'The Mullets' on UPN, unless
there's an untapped audience, which there might be, of black people laughing
at dumb white people." Goodman on UPN's new lifestyle show.
The
Reality: As we said, this category is all about semantics.
While NBC beat the other networks in announcing that "Coupling" would
go hiatus for November, UPN was the first show to officially remove a
new shot from its schedule. There's no word on when "The Mullets" will
return, but our collective national IQ has been lowered for having seen
it at all.
Our Thoughts:
The first move for "The O.C." doesn't count, since the soap is already
scheduled to skip from Tuesday to Thursday, but will FOX decide to save
it from "CSI?" Will CBS end up getting "JAG" and "Navy NCIS" back together
on either Friday or Tuesday? Will ABC have enough confidence in "Threat
Matrix" to try it on a non-Thursday night? Where will "A Minute With Stan
Hooper" go once "American Idol" returns.
 The
Experts Say: Your guess is as good as theirs, as many different
shows received single votes including "The O.C.," "Tarzan" and the redundantly
titled "Navy NCIS."
We Quote: "The 'JAG' fans are pissed
that their show got moved for the spin-off, and they seem like the type
to stay away from the new show out of protest -- at least until CBS swaps
the timeslots for 'Navy NCIS' and 'JAG.'" Alan Sepinwall of the Newark
Star-Ledger.
The
Reality: As we said, FOX moving "The O.C." to Thursday night
didn't count, but when the network shifted the summer soap sensation to
Wednesday nights, it became the first new show moved to a new night.
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